A framework for definition of logical scenarios for safety assurance of automated driving

Abstract

Objective: In order to introduce automated vehicles on public roads, it is necessary to ensure that these vehicles are safe to operate in traffic. One challenge is to prove that all physically possible variations of situations can be handled safely within the operational design domain of the vehicle. A promising approach to handling the set of possible situations is to identify a manageable number of logical scenarios, which provide an abstraction for object properties and behavior within the situations. These can then be transferred into concrete scenarios defining all parameters necessary to reproduce the situation in different test environments.

Methods: This article proposes a framework for defining safety-relevant scenarios based on the potential collision between the subject vehicle and a challenging object, which forces the subject vehicle to depart from its planned course of action to avoid a collision. This allows defining only safety-relevant scenarios, which can directly be related to accident classification. The first criterion for defining a scenario is the area of the subject vehicle with which the object would collide. As a second criterion, 8 different positions around the subject vehicle are considered. To account for other relevant objects in the scenario, factors that influence the challenge for the subject vehicle can be added to the scenario. These are grouped as action constraints, dynamic occlusions, and causal chains.

Results: By applying the proposed systematics, a catalog of base scenarios for a vehicle traveling on controlled-access highways has been generated, which can directly be linked to parameters in accident classification. The catalog serves as a basis for scenario classification within the PEGASUS project.

Conclusions: Defining a limited number of safety-relevant scenarios helps to realize a systematic safety assurance process for automated vehicles. Scenarios are defined based on the point of the potential collision of a challenging object with the subject vehicle and its initial position. This approach allows defining scenarios for different environments and different driving states of the subject vehicle using the same mechanisms. A next step is the generation of logical scenarios for other driving states of the subject vehicle and for other traffic environments.     

区间数多属性决策在飞机一发失效应急程序方案优选中的应用

针对在飞机一发失效应急程序方案的选择中,很多定量因素难以精确量化的问题,将区间数多属性决策运用到飞机一发失效应急程序方案的优选中,构建了评价指标体系。此评价指标体系应用基于理想解的区间数多属性决策的相对隶属度法来选择最佳方案,该方法通过计算并查找现有方案的相对隶属度最大值来确定最佳方案。最后举例说明如何在实际中使用此方法。     

中原经济区能源消费视角下的大气环境压力评估

研究以能源消费模式为切入点,分析中原经济区能源消费总量、消费结构和利用效率的现状水平,并分析能源消费引起的大气环境压力状况。基于经济发展速度调控及节能减排力度的不同,设置2020年三种能源消费情景,使用区域能源消费总量优化模型模拟预测不同情景下的能源消费总量,并分析不同情景下的大气环境压力。结果表明,快速发展和适度发展Ⅰ情景下,2020年区域能源消费总量将比2012年增加4.2×10~8tce和2.4×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将增加3.1×10~8tce和1.2×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力增加30%和50%;适度发展Ⅱ情景下,能源消费总量将增加0.2×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将下降0.3×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力将降低20%。因此,要实现经济发展稳步增长(年均增长率7.7%)和大气污染物排放总量削减10%目标,重中之重是实现煤炭消费总量"零增长"或"负增长",同时力争能源消费总量控制在5×10~8~6×10~8tce,凭借煤炭占比大幅下降(降至65%左右)最大限度发挥能源供给领域节能效应,依靠产业结构升级节能效应和技术节能拓展能源消费领域节能空间,将能效水平提高至0.6tce/万元以下。     

Predictors of specialist avifaunal decline in coastal marshes

Coastal marshes are one of the world's most productive ecosystems. Consequently, they have been heavily used by humans for centuries, resulting in ecosystem loss. Direct human modifications such as road crossings and ditches and climatic stressors such as sea‐level rise and extreme storm events have the potential to further degrade the quantity and quality of marsh along coastlines. We used an 18‐year marsh‐bird database to generate population trends for 5 avian species (Rallus crepitans, Tringa semipalmata semipalmata, Ammodramus nelsonii subvirgatus, Ammodramus caudacutus, and Ammodramus maritimus) that breed almost exclusively in tidal marshes, and are potentially vulnerable to marsh degradation and loss as a result of anthropogenic change. We generated community and species trends across 3 spatial scales and explored possible drivers of the changes we observed, including marsh ditching, tidal restriction through road crossings, local rates of sea‐level rise, and potential for extreme flooding events. The specialist community showed negative trends in tidally restricted marshes (?2.4% annually from 1998 to 2012) but was stable in unrestricted marshes across the same period. At the species level, we found negative population trends in 3 of the 5 specialist species, ranging from ?4.2% to 9.0% annually. We suggest that tidal restriction may accelerate degradation of tidal marsh resilience to sea‐level rise by limiting sediment supply necessary for marsh accretion, resulting in specialist habitat loss in tidally restricted marshes. Based on our findings, we predict a collapse of the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrows (A. caudacutus) within the next 50 years and suggest that immediate conservation action is needed to prevent extinction of this species. We also suggest mitigation actions to restore sediment supply to coastal marshes to help sustain this ecosystem into the future.     

多金属氧酸盐非均相光催化降解处理有机废水的研究进展

非均相光催化氧化是一种催化剂易于回收利用且研究广泛的高级氧化技术。本文综述了多金属氧酸盐(POMs)非均相光催化降解废水中有机污染物的研究现状。该类非均相光催化剂主要包括负载型POMs(载体主要有半导体氧化物、离子交换树脂和分子筛)、POMs复合膜材料、不溶性盐和多元复合物。讨论了其制备方法、降解效果、反应机理和重复使用性。最后,指出了该领域未来可能的研究方向,为该领域的进一步研究提供参考。     

Evaluating consistency of stakeholder input into participatory GIS-based multiple criteria evaluation: a case study of ecotourism development in Kurdistan

Multiple criteria evaluation (MCE) is often used with GIS to identify suitable sites for multi-purpose development such as ecotourism. Typically, expert or stakeholder consultation is used to identify weights reflecting the relative importance of map layers representing different criteria. The objective of this study was to evaluate a new consultative approach to GIS-based MCE, using ecotourism development in Kurdistan, Iraq, as a case study. In an initial and follow-up consultation, stakeholders were asked not only to assess the relative importance of different map layers for ecotourism development, but also to identify specific sites suitable for ecotourism. Seventy-eight ecotourism destinations nominated by participants had significantly higher MCE scores than a set of 58 locations chosen without reference to stakeholders (t-test = 21.16; p < 0.001). The approach thus provides a straightforward means of assessing the consistency of stakeholder input into MCE and could be adapted for use in other site suitability assessments.     

过程液氯贮槽装置封闭厂房及事故氯吸收塔联用安全效用分析

分析、设立液氯贮槽液相泄漏的几种典型事故情景,并利用液相泄漏、液池蒸发、重气扩散和人员中毒死亡概率等模型对比研究封闭厂房及事故氯吸收塔等安全措施对液氯贮槽液相泄漏扩散中毒后果的影响,给出不同事故情景下液氯泄漏速率、液池半径、液池蒸发速率、室外氯气中毒死亡概率等事故后果特征值。对封闭厂房及事故氯吸收塔安全效用进行定量分析和比较研究。结果表明,液氯贮槽的封闭厂房对抑制液氯泄漏扩散中毒事故后果效用明显;事故氯吸收塔能消除液氯贮槽微小孔泄漏所对应的小事故情景,还能对封闭厂房最严重泄漏事故后果起到初期削峰作用。显然,封闭厂房及事故氯吸收塔联用可以降低液氯贮槽事故影响后果,具有良好安全效用。     

长江上游月降水人工神经网络预测模型

长江上游月降水量预测对于三峡库区及整个长江流域水资源管理具有重要意义。根据长江上游不同气候区降水差异，选取玉树、九龙和宜宾3个代表性气象站点近60 a的月降水量数据，运用反向传播神经网络、径向基函数神经网络、广义回归神经网络和多元线性回归法，确定降水时滞和降水月份，建立月降水预测模型，来预测未来一个月的降水量，并采用均方误差和判定系数来验证和对比各种模型的模拟效果。结果显示：人工神经网络模型总体上优于多元线性回归，特别是反向传播神经网络的模拟结果各站表现较好，在确定合理的输入变量和网络结构后，可以尝试作为长江上游各站月降水预测模型。〖     

大宁河叶绿素a的因子分值-多元线性回归预测模型研究

自从2003年三峡水库蓄水以后，其支流大宁河水华频发且频率呈上升趋势。叶绿素a(Chla)是指示水体中浮游植物初级生产力的有效指标。采用因子分值-多元线性回归方法研究了大宁河水体11个相关水质因子与Chl a之间的相关关系。因子分析用于简化水质指标之间的相关性，以因子得分（Score values）为自变量用于多元线性回归分析中。结果发现log（Chla）与6个因子分值明显相关，所获得多元线性回归模型为：log(Chl a)=0.579-0191×(Score 1)-0.013×(Score 2)-0.013×(Score 3)+0042×(Score 4)+0134×(Score 5)-0.059×(Score 6)，相关系数 R= 0.731、相关系数的平方 R ²=0535，说明自变量可以解释因变量53.5%的差异性。实测数据验证结果表明：该模型能够较好的预测2010年1～10月水体中Chl a浓度的峰值和基本变化趋势     

Vulnerability and adaptation to heat in cities: perspectives and perceptions of local adaptation decision-makers in Sweden

Climate change vulnerability is disproportionately distributed between different population segments in society. This study qualitatively explores how key stakeholders in municipalities (i.e. planning and operational staff in municipalities and the vulnerable themselves) construct social vulnerability in relation to climate change with a specific focus on thermal stress (i.e. heat waves) and which adaptive responses they identify at different levels. The empirical material consists of five focus groups with actors in a large Swedish municipality where the “Vulnerability Factor Card Game” was used as stimulus material to create 10 fictional individuals. The results show that there is a substantial amount of local knowledge about vulnerability drivers and inter-relations between social factors and vulnerability. Local decision-makers also defined a wide range of possible adaptation measures at different municipal levels. Our study clearly indicates that contextualised knowledge, which could complement the quantitative approaches in research, is abundant among municipal planners, staff employed at municipal operations such as health care, and among the vulnerable themselves. This knowledge remains untapped by research to a great extent and only seems to have an insignificant influence on policy-making. In particular, how impacts vary between different social and demographic groups and how adaptation strategies that target the most vulnerable could be defined are of great interest. The present study clearly indicates that social hierarchy may produce increased inequality in the specific context of climate change, vulnerability and adaptive responses at different levels.